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                                                                  National Open University of Nigeria
                                                            14-16 Ahmadu Bello Way, Victoria Island Lagos 
                                                                      School of Management Science
                                                                      March/April 2014 Examination 



                  COURSE CODE: ENT330
                  COURSE TITTLE:BUSINESS FORECASTING
                  TIME ALLOWED: 2hrs
                   Instructions: ANSWER QUESTION 1 AND ANY OTHER 2 QUESTIONS
                                               Q1 ISCOMPULSORY AND CARRIES 30MARKS WHILE OTHER 2 CARIIES 20MARKS EACH
                                               PRESENT ALL YOUR POINTS IN COHERENT AND ORDERLY MANNER 

1a. identify and briefly explain the 4 component of time series.

b. consider the data given bellow 

YEAR
SALES OF RICE IN KILOGRAMS
1
                       14000
2
                        17000
3
                      15000
4
                      23000
5
                     18000
6
                     22000
7
                     27000

USING THE ABOVE DATA FORCAST FOR THE 8 YEAR USING THE LEAST ACQUIRES METHOD

C. outline 5 drawback of moving average method

2a.with the aid of relevant formula describe he simple moving average method

b.in what ways is forecasting important to business 

3a. discuss 5 guiding principles on market demand forecasting 

b. in chronological starting from the first to the last, highlight the steps involve in forecasting.

4a. define business forecasting and highlight areas where business forecasting can be applied 

b. explain 2 methods of profit forecast 

5a. give 3 key limitations to business forecasting

b. write short note on the following qualitative forecasting methods

i. Delphi methods

ii. scenario writing methods

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